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Are The Chiefs The Favourites To Beat The Bucs In The Super Bowl?


With a half-time show by Canadian artist The Weeknd, this weekend’s Super Bowl LV promises to be a cracker. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will not only play in the game, but effectively host it as it is being played at their own Raymond James Stadium in front of 22,500 invited spectators.

There they will face the current Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs who have been without doubt the best team in the NFL over the past two years and aim to prove that by clinching back-to-back Super Bowl victories on Sunday.

With a host of star names set to take to the field including Bucs aces Tom Brady, Chris Godfrey, Ndamukong Suh, Jason Pierre-Paul and Mike Evans, alongside the Chiefs stars like Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Jones, it promises to be an epic contest!

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Let’s take a quick look now at how the two teams compare as we head towards Sunday’s big Floridian showdown.

Chiefs V Buccaneers – A Comparison

Kansas City Chiefs Versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14-2 Regular Season Record 11-5
1 Seed # 5
Bye Wildcard Weekend 31-23 @ Washington
22-17 v Cleveland Browns Divisional Round 30-20 @ New Orleans
38-24 v Buffalo Bills Championship Game 31-26 @ Green Bay
Andy Reid Head Coach Bruce Arians
Patrick Mahomes Quarterback Tom Brady
1 Wins Over Opposing QB 2
1 Offense Rank 5
10 Defense Rank 9
1 Special Teams Rank 26
2 – 1970, 2020 Previous Super Bowl Wins 1 – 2003
6 Head to Head Wins 7

What are the key nuggets of information that we can gleam from this? Well firstly, the teams are very alike in many ways, we have two top five rated offenses in the NFL, two top ten rated defenses, two teams with somewhat limited Super Bowl success coached by two very experienced head coaches with arguably two of the top three quarterbacks in the NFL.

However, there are some marked differences between the two teams too. The Chiefs have only lost twice all year and one of those losses was a final day loss when Andy Reid rested all his starters and played back up players. The Buccaneers lost five on the season and did not even top their division, finishing second behind the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South.

They did however beat the Saints in the NFC Divisional Round to progress to the Conference Championship game.

We can also see that the teams are closely matched in head to head wins, with the Bucs leading by just the one in the historic record between the two franchises.

The biggest difference though is on special teams where the lowly ranked 26th Special Teams of the Bucs has a job against the top ranked Chiefs special teams. Could this often-under-appreciated aspect of each team be a defining factor in the Super Bowl on Sunday?

What Are The Battles That Will Decide Super Bowl LV?

As with any NFL game, it will be whoever comes out on top in a number of key battles between the two sets of players that will likely decide the outcome of Super Bowl LV. What are these key battles? We have outlined the most important ones below.

  • Can The Buccaneers Defense Contain The Kansas City Offense?

The Bucs defense has played very well during the post season but despite this, they are going to have to play even better to have any chance of stopping the Chiefs offense. So explosive is this offense that it can rack up 21 or 28 points in the space of 12-15 minutes against any team and that is so hard to come back from.

However, the Chiefs do tend to start games a little slowly and if the Bucs defense can have some joy early on against Mahomes and co, that could set the tone for a tough day ahead for the Chiefs signal caller.

  • Can The Chiefs Defense Hurry And Disrupt Tom Brady?

As Green Bay showed in their loss to the Bucs a couple of weeks back, if you can put pressure on Brady then he will make mistakes. I feel the Chiefs will know that letting Brady have time to pick his passes is going to result in a shootout and that is not the ideal scenario, even for the high-scoring Chiefs offense.

As such, I think the Chiefs will be keen to pressure Brady as often as possible and Chris Jones is likely to be the man to do that. How he fares against his Buccaneers offensive line opponent may well influence the Chiefs chances a great deal.

  • How Will Special Teams Play Influence The Game?

The Bucs special teams play this season has been poor, but they have stepped up markedly during the post season. The Chiefs are always a huge threat on special teams with the pacy returners they have and as such, I can see the Chiefs managing to break a couple of big plays on special teams at key times. Perhaps even from a kick off or more likely, from a punt return.

  • Whose’ Defense Will Step Up At A Crucial Time?

One of the signature factors for both these teams, both during the regular season and especially during the post season, is that their defense has stepped up at crucial times and come up with a big play.

Both defenses are very similar in ranking but I just feel that while the Bucs defense is more consistent with its pressure and is better against the run, the Chiefs defense tends to come up with the bigger players at key times and I think that could be a decisive factor. It may be an interception at some point, or a fumble recovery, but I just feel that the Chiefs defense is explosive enough to land a key blow.

Our Top Tips For Super Bowl LV

This will be a cracking game and having looked at the main battles to be fought by both teams above, I cannot see anybody stopping the Kansas City Chiefs landing a second Super Bowl victory at the weekend.

As such, my tips for the game are for the Chiefs to win by a 38-31 scoreline and I would back the following bets:

  • Spread – Chiefs to win (-3.0) – 5/6
  • Total Points – Over 56.5 – 10/11
  • Money Line – Chiefs to win – 10/17
  • Super Bowl LV MVP Winner – Patrick Mahomes (5/6)

*All Odds Shown Were Correct With Bet365 Sport as of 11.30am on Tuesday 2nd February 2021.