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Sweeping Changes To EPL Odds After Liverpool Beat Man City


Last Sunday could well have been the week that potentially decided the eventual destination of the Premier League title. Manchester City travelled to Anfield to face Liverpool already six points behind their title rivals, despite the fact that Liverpool had already played four of the top six teams in the Premier League so far this season.

The fact that Liverpool then went on to record a fantastic 3-1 victory over City meant that not onlyd id they extend their lead over Manchester City to nine points, but it also saw City drop down to fourth with Leicester City and Chelsea now leapfrogging Pep Guardiola’s men to enter the international break above them in the Premier League table.

As such, this result on Sunday has seen a massive change in betting odds on the Premier League, with Liverpool now ranked the clear odds on favourites with bet365 to land the league title that has eluded the for so many years, while Manchester City are the clear second-favourites, despite being fourth in the table.

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Let’s now take a look at why Liverpool are rated the 2/5 favourites to win the Premier League with bet365, while Manchester City are now ranked 9/4, with Chelsea and Leicester City both rated the 33/1 shots.

Premier League – Festive Period

As we head towards the busiest period of the season, over November through to the first week in January, it is clear to see why the bookmakers have posted the odds they have. The top four are well clear of the next best team (Sheffield United) in the table, with eight points between City and Sheffield United in the table.  Similarly, Liverpool lead Leicester and Chelsea by the same eight point gap.

However, it is if you look at the fixtures each team has coming up over the next few weeks which highlights just how well Liverpool have started the season and the difficult games that lie ahead for their rivals, particularly Manchester City.

Top Four Fixtures through to January

As well as listing the teams each team faces from now until January in all competitions, we have also listed the number of fixtures each team has against the ‘Big 6” of Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal, Tottenham and Chelsea, the games they have against teams currently in the top half of the Premier League and also games against teams currently in the top six (which includes the four listed teams, plus Sheffield United and Arsenal).

When you look at the data, it is easy to see why the bookmakers are no so strongly in favour of Liverpool to win the title.

Liverpool

  • 23rd November – Crystal Palace v Liverpool (EPL)
  • 27th November – Liverpool v Napoli (CL)
  • 30th November – Liverpool v Brighton (EPL)
  • 4th December – Liverpool v Everton (EPL)
  • 7th December – Bournemouth v Liverpool (EPL)
  • 10th December – Red Bull Salzburg v Liverpool (CL)
  • 14th December – Liverpool v Watford (EPL)
  • 17th December – Aston Villa v Liverpool (Carabao Cup Quarterfinal)
  • 18th December – Liverpool v Unknown Opponent (Club World Cup Semi Final)
  • 21st December – Potential Club World Cup Final or 3rd Place Match
  • 26th December – Leicester City v Liverpool (EPL)
  • 29th December – Liverpool v Wolves (EPL)
  • 2nd January – Liverpool v Sheffield United (EPL)

13 Games (8 EPL, 1 Carabao Cup, 2 Champions League, 2 World Club Cup)

Liverpool will have to rearrange their away game with West Ham (originally to be played on the 21st December) to a later date.

  • Games Against the “Big 6” – 0
  • Games Against Top Half Teams – 3
  • Games Against Current Top Six Teams – 1

Record Against The Top Six This Season

  • Liverpool 2-1 Leicester City
  • Chelsea 1-2 Liverpool
  • Liverpool 3-1 Manchester City
  • Sheff Utd 0-1 Liverpool
  • Liverpool 3-1 Arsenal

5 wins from 5 games – 11 goals scored, 5 conceded.

Leicester City

  • 23rd November – Brighton v Leicester City (EPL)
  • 1st December – Leicester City v Everton (EPL)
  • 4th December – Leicester City v Watford (EPL)
  • 8th December – Aston Villa v Leicester City (EPL)
  • 14th December – Leicester City v Norwich City (EPL)
  • 18th December – Everton v Leicester City (Carabao Cup Quarterfinal)
  • 21st December – Manchester City v Leicester City (EPL)
  • 26th December – Leicester City v Liverpool (EPL)
  • 28th December – West Ham v Leicester City (EPL)
  • 1st January – Newcastle v Leicester City (EPL)

10 Games (9 EPL, 1 Carabao Cup)

  • Games Against the “Big 6” – 2
  • Games Against Top Half Teams – 2
  • Games Against Current Top Six Teams – 2

Record against the top six this season

  • Liverpool 2-1 Leicester City
  • Chelsea 1-1 Leicester City
  • Sheff Utd 1-2 Leicester City
  • Leicester 2-0 Arsenal.

Played 4, Won 2, Drawn 1, Lost 1 For 6 Against 4.

Chelsea

  • 23rd November – Manchester City v Chelsea (EPL)
  • 27th November – Valencia v Chelsea (CL)
  • 30th November – Chelsea v West Ham (EPL)
  • 4th December – Chelsea v Aston. Villa (EPL)
  • 7th December – Everton v Chelsea (EPL)
  • 10th December – Chelsea v Lille (CL)
  • 14th December – Chelsea v Bournemouth (EPL)
  • 22nd December – Tottenham v Chelsea (EPL)
  • 26th December – Chelsea v Southampton (EPL)
  • 29th December – Arsenal v Chelsea (EPL)
  • 1st January – Brighton v Chelsea (EPL)

11 Games (9 EPL, 2 Champions League)

  • Games Against the “Big 6” – 3
  • Games Against Top Half Teams – 3
  • Games Against Current Top Six Teams – 2

Record against top six this season

  • Chelsea 1-2 Liverpool
  • Chelsea 1-1 Leicester City
  • Chelsea 2-2 Sheffield United

Played 3, Won 0, Drawn 2, Lost 1 For 4 Against 5

Man City

  • 23rd November – Manchester City v Chelsea (EPL)
  • 26th November – Manchester City v Shakhtar Donetsk (CL)
  • 30th November – Newcastle United v Manchester City (EPL)
  • 3rd December – Burnley v Manchester City (EPL)
  • 7th December – Manchester City v Manchester United (EPL)
  • 11th December – Dinamo Zagreb v Manchester City (CL)
  • 15th December – Arsenal v Manchester City (EPL)
  • 18th December – Oxford United v Manchester City (Carabao Cup Quarterfinal)
  • 21st December – Manchester City v Leicester City (EPL)
  • 27th December – Wolves v Manchester City (EPL)
  • 29th December – Manchester City v Sheffield United (EPL)
  • 1st January – Manchester City v Everton (EPL)

12 Games (9 EPL, 2 Champions League, 1 Carabao Cup)

  • Games Against the “Big 6” – 3
  • Games Against Top Half Teams – 7
  • Games Against Current Top Six Teams – 4

Record against the top six this season

  • Liverpool 3-1 Manchester City

Played 1, Won 0, Drawn 0, Lost 1, For 1 Against 3.

So to sum up the situation, Liverpool have an eight point lead at the top over Leicester and Chelsea, nine over Manchester City, despite having played all of the top six so far, games which they have managed to secure a victory in each. They are unbeaten in 12 games having played the likes of Man City, Arsenal and Tottenham at home, plus Chelsea, Man Utd, Sheff Utd and Burnley away.

Furthermore, their main rivals have more games to play against the Big Six, top six an top half teams than the Reds do, although this last group is somewhat fluid given that the main body of the Premier League table is somewhat fluid due to teams having similar numbers of points.